Predicted inflation rate

Looking for news you can trust?Subscribe to our free newsletters. What’s the best measure of inflation? The answer depends a lot on what you’re doing. Predicting future inflation? Figuring out how much we really spend on defense? Comparing physician salaries around the world? There are different measures of inflation that work best for all of them. But let’s assume we just want “ordinary” inflation. That is, the average price rise experienced by the average family for a basket of average goods (food, gasoline, clothing, rent, etc.). The two main contenders are CPI—the Consumer Price Index—which you see on the news every month when they tell you how much “inflation” rose, and PCE—Personal Consumption Expenditures—which you never see. However, PCE is widely used in various professional contexts. There is, generally, not much difference between the two. This chart from FRED covers the past five years and shows periods … [Read more...] about How High Is “Real” Inflation?

Creighton University Professor Ernie Goss, PhD, said rising interest rates, trade tensions and rising inflation are warning signs of a possible economic downturn. While Goss emphasizes that the U.S. economy is strong, he expects the economy may be headed toward a downturn as early as the latter part of 2019 or in 2020. “As the last recession showed us, it’s very hard to predict the timing, but the U.S. economy is definitely headed toward higher risk,” Goss said. Goss, director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group and the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics in the Heider College of Business, said there are signs of trouble as the gap, or yield curve, between short-term and long-term interest rate decreases. The yield curve is currently at 0.30 percent, the lowest it’s been since the last U.S. recession, which was from 2007 to 2009. “Since 1980, every U.S. recession has been preceded by a period in which short term rates … [Read more...] about Opinion: Interest, inflation, trade could indicate coming downturn

Home buyers waiting on a return to lower mortgage rates before buying are probably out of luck, a top housing economist told local home builders and Realtors Tuesday. Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, said home borrowing rates are headed higher as the Federal Reserve Bank tightens its monetary policy, inflation edges higher and government deficits worsen. "Some consumers may be thinking that because mortgage rates are higher than they were a year ago, maybe I should just wait until rates fall down again," Yun said during a luncheon speech to the Greater Chattanooga Realtors and the Home Builders Association of Chattanooga. "Well, they will be waiting forever." The top economist for America's biggest real estate association said he expects 30-year mortgage rates will likely rise to about 5 percent, up from the current rate of 4.75 percent, over the next 12 months. That's still only a fraction of the 14 percent mortgage rates of the 1970s when … [Read more...] about Despite prospects of higher mortgage rates, housing market should continue to improve