Exactly eight weeks before Election Day, Biden has strong opportunities to recapture states that President Donald Trump won in 2016 both in the Rust Belt and the Sun Belt. But public and private polls consistently show that Biden is running slightly better in the former group of battlegrounds — centered on Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — than the latter, which include North Carolina, Florida and Arizona … … [Read more...] about Is the Rust Belt or the Sun Belt the Key Battleground Region in 2020?
Some states have made it easier to make changes in identification documents such as gender markers on birth certificates, a process that varies state by state. Name changes can cost $500, in addition the costs of hiring an attorney. Advocates say in some states, transgender people must undergo gender affirming surgery that many consider invasive before their birth certificates and other identification documents can be updated. … [Read more...] about Transgender Americans Face Voting Barriers in 2020 Presidential Election, Study Finds
Meanwhile, the Biden campaign has emerged as a fundraising machine, with a record $365 million brought in last month. While the announcement of Kamala Harris as the VP pick provided a significant boost, much of the post-primary success has come from the campaign’s minimal footprint during the pandemic. One tactic, the Zoom fundraiser, has reportedly been a major success, taking less than 90 minutes and making up to $720,000 per session. The Trump campaign has not released its August numbers, and staffers have not managed to get the president to get on video calls with donors. According to the Times, “aides say he doesn’t like them.” … [Read more...] about The 2020 Trump Campaign Is Reportedly a Financial Mess
While the military has never been involved in settling election disputes, concerns about its politicization are not new. General Leonard Wood unsuccessfully sought the Republican nomination for president in 1920 while still in uniform and General Winfield Scott ran unsuccessfully for president under the Whig party's banner while he was still serving as the head of the US Army. … [Read more...] about Top US general tells Congress the military won’t play a role in the 2020 election
In 2016, the typical forecast display led with win probabilities, or percentages, such as Trump having a 28 percent chance. Now FiveThirtyEight and the Economist instead lead with frequencies. The Economist’s top line, for example, states that Biden has a 5 in 6 chance of winning versus Trump’s 1 in 6. Research suggests that using frequencies helps readers grasp probability. When faced with probability, it can be easier to round up (or down) than to form a clear conception of what a 30 percent chance means. We won’t have another Biden versus Trump election to test a model’s predictions, but we can imagine getting heads on a coin flip three out of ten times. … [Read more...] about There’s more than meets the eye in 2020 election forecasts