It’s unclear whether the Sun King can get out of his own campaign’s way. Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images A lot of the analysis of the first round of Democratic presidential debates last week focused on the possible fodder the candidates and the subjects they debated might offer to the sinister general election opponent awaiting the eventual nominee in 2020. Here’s Larry Sabato and Kyle Kondik, after observing some of the more controversial positions many of the debaters embraced: The next election may be similar to the last couple of elections featuring incumbent presidents: 2004 and 2012. The incumbents those years, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, wanted the election to be a choice between them or their challengers; the challengers, John Kerry and Mitt Romney, respectively, wanted the election to be a referendum on the incumbent. Bush and Obama found enough cracks in their opponents that they avoided the kind of straight referendum that could have doomed … [Read more...] about Can the World’s Greatest Narcissist Really Avoid a ‘Referendum Election’ in 2020?
Amy Klobuchar is among the first 2020 possibilities to perform the rituals Iowans require of candidates, which include defending their first-in-the-nation status. Photo: Rachel Mummey/The Washington Post/Getty Images With arguments still swirling about how and why Democrats lost the 2016 presidential contest, and well before the midterm election cycle gets seriously underway, the first stirrings of the 2020 presidential-nominating process have begun in Iowa. Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar appeared at county Democratic fundraisers in Des Moines and Cedar Rapids over the weekend. She did not acknowledge any White House fever, and as the senator from a neighboring state (she joked in Des Moines that she could see Iowa from her front porch) she can dip a toe into Iowa politics without raising too many eyebrows. But make no mistake, the complex process of “paying dues” in Iowa in order to gain an advantage in a theoretical run has begun. As former governor Tom Vilsack … [Read more...] about God Help Us, Iowa’s 2020 Presidential Contest Is Already Underway
Kentucky governor Matt Bevin, who’s up for reelection in 2019, watches President Trump speak at a rally in Richmond, Kentucky, on October 13, 2018. Photo: Andrew Harnik/AP/REX/Shutterstock/Andrew Harnik/AP/REX/Shutterstock As the momentous 2018 midterm election cycle gives way to the even more momentous presidential cycle of 2020, it’s tempting to overlook the contests regularly and specially scheduled for the year just ahead. They will be of more than local interest, as donors, activists, and pundits treat them as dress rehearsals for the Big Event, much as the Spanish Civil War was a devil’s appetizer for World War II. One variable is hard to predict with any precision: Will the Trump administration deal with its personnel turnover problems by dipping into the congressional ranks? If so, there could be some special elections of note like those that enlivened the off year of 2017 (deaths, illnesses, and criminal indictments could create some vacancies as well). … [Read more...] about A First Look at the 2019 Elections
Early odds are good for Nancy Pelosi to hang onto her gavel. Photo: Zach Gibson/Getty Images For all sorts of good reasons, the main focus of political analysts looking ahead to next year’s election is an epochal presidential election, with much of the residual attention being devoted to a Senate battle that will determine whether the presidential winner is or isn’t in a good position to get executive branch and judicial nominees confirmed. But all 435 U.S. House seats are up in 2020 as well, with Democrats defending a 236-199 margin. As I noted last month, history suggests it will be very difficult for Republicans to make the net gains of 19 seats necessary to flip the House, which hasn’t changed hands in a presidential election since Dwight D. Eisenhower’s landslide win in 1952. But on the other hand, there are 31 House Democrats in districts Trump carried in 2016 (and after 2018, just three Republicans in Clinton ’16 districts), so it would be wise … [Read more...] about The House Probably Won’t Flip in 2020
Ten Democrats will debate at Tyler Perry Studios in Atlanta, Georgia, on Wednesday evening. Presidential candidates Andrew Yang, Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Tulsi Gabbard, Tom Steyer, Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, and Amy Klobuchar will take the stage just months before the nominating process starts. MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow and Andrea Mitchell will moderate the debate with NBC’s Kristen Wekler and the Washington Post’s Ashley Parker.Stay tuned to Breitbart News for live updates. All times eastern. Debate begins at 9 PM ET.Who won the Democrat debate? — 11:50 PM: Warren just not appealing to people like Peter Gammons…. and David Gergen: David Gergen on Elizabeth Warren: "There's a hectoring quality there" pic.twitter.com/4j1dBUXgvk — Andrew Lawrence (@ndrew_lawrence) November 21, 2019 11:39 PM: MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell says Biden’s screw up re: Harris/Moseley Braun was unlike anything he has ever seen … [Read more...] about ***Live Updates*** Democrats Debate in Georgia